SPEAKER British High Commissioner, Boyd McCleary

DATE 12/10/2009

Yang Berbahagia Datin Paduka Prof Dr Khatijah Mohd Yusoff, Deputy Secretary-General for Science, Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation Malaysia

Dr Yap Kok Seng, Director-General, Malaysian Meteorological Department

Workshop Trainers from the Hadley Centre UK

Workshop Delegates from all ASEAN member countries

Ladies and Gentlemen

Good morning.

I would like to thank the Malaysian Meteorological Department for inviting me to say a few words at the opening of this training workshop, which the British Government has co-sponsored.  

Anybody who follows current affairs will know that the issue of climate change is attracting increased attention as we near the Copenhagen meeting in December. The physical impacts are becoming more widespread and severe. And scientists tell us the worst is yet to come.

Unless something is done, there is a 75% chance that average global temperatures will rise by 2 to 3 degrees over the next 50 years. A conference at Oxford University just last week, jointly organised by the Hadley Centre at the British Met Office, presented new research on the increasing potential for a 4 degrees Celsius rise in global temperatures if the current high emissions of greenhouse gases continue.  Dr Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts at the Hadley Centre, said that a 4-degree warming could happen ‘before the end of the century’ and would have extreme regional implications, along with major changes in rainfall. He added that very intensive fossil fuel burning could bring this forward by 20 years - if emissions are not cut soon, we could see major climate changes within our own lifetimes.

As you are already aware, the likely consequences of climate change will include sea-level rise, extreme weather, falling crop yields and a massive displacement of populations. Practical examples of the physical impacts are easy to find. Increasingly violent cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes will continue to affect millions more than before  - including countries in South East Asia. The recent incidents of extreme weather in the region are cases in point.  

Ladies and Gentlemen,

In April this year the Asian Development Bank published a review of the economics of climate change in Southeast Asia. It followed the methodology used in the Stern Review, which was published in the UK in 2006, and looks at both the regional scale and individual countries.  

The report provides insights on how the region will need to mitigate and adapt to climate change. It provides the economic rationale for doing so quickly. And it includes policy options for the transition to a low carbon economy.  

The ADB found that South East Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change – particularly as most of the population and economic activity is concentrated on low-lying coastlines; and the region is heavily reliant on agriculture, natural resources and forestry.

Therefore, it is vital that South East Asia is able to make its own future climate predictions and combine them with local knowledge. This was the basis on which the PRECIS system – which stands for ‘Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies’ - was developed at the UK Met Office.  

This system has been made widely available to groups of developing countries, so they can develop climate change scenarios at national centres of excellence, simultaneously building capacity and drawing on local climatological expertise. These scenarios can be used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies. They will help in the preparation of National Communications, as required under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change .  They will also help developing countries to have a more informed voice on the international stage.  

That is very important. As we move towards the talks in Copenhagen this December, the British Government believes it is essential that the world reach a new international agreement on climate change.  An agreement that is ambitious; by limiting warming to 2 degrees, reducing emissions by 50% by 2050, and ensuring that emissions peak by 2020. An agreement that is effective, by driving investment in clean energy, sustainable forestry and adaptation, and by expanding the global carbon market.  And an agreement that is fair, by providing support for countries to adapt to climate change.

That is why the British Prime Minister has recently launched an initiative on climate financing. He argued that the global community should be providing $100bn on an annual basis by 2020, to help developing countries to adapt to climate change. He proposed that this financing should be predictable; additional to Overseas Development Assistance; and that there should be contributions from both developed and developing countries, according to emissions and ability to pay.

As you are all aware, the work that Met Offices carry out is crucial to the international negotiations. Because the political decisions that Governments take have to be informed by the best science and projections that are available.

I understand that the Malaysian Met Department is one of the PRECIS regional focal points and data distribution centres in the world. I am very pleased to hear that, as I have hd frequent evidence of the good work that has been carried out by the Malaysian Met Dept since I was posted here began in 2006.

I also understand that the Hadley Centre has been in the region before, training and developing regional models with ASEAN experts since 2006. To date, two regional workshops have been conducted in the region, prior to this one today.  Long may this partnership continue.

I assure you that you are in the right hands! The Hadley Centre is one of the world’s leading centres for climate change research. Its scientists make significant contributions to peer-reviewed literature and to a variety of climate change reports, including the Assessment Report of the IPCC. Its climate projections were the basis for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, and now that study has been successfully transferred to the regional level in South East Asia by the ADB – as I mentioned earlier.  

Once again, I would like to thank the Malaysian Met Department for inviting me to say a few words at this event. I wish all regional participants and trainers a very successful and fruitful workshop.

Thank you.

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