LOCATION The Residence

SPEAKER British High Commissioner, Boyd McCleary

DATE 15/10/2009

Ladies and Gentlemen.

Good afternoon.

Many thanks to all of you for sparing some time today to view this special screening of a new documentary commissioned by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. This DVD film is coming at the back of the recently published study known as The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review, which was carried out and authored by the Asian Development Bank. I am sure most of you are aware of this report by now.

Please allow me to say few things before we preview the new documentary together.  

Anybody who follows current affairs will know that the issue of climate change is attracting increased attention as we near the Copenhagen meeting in December. The physical impacts are becoming more widespread and severe. And scientists tell us the worst is yet to come. Scientists in the UK now are already talking about future scenarios of a 4-degree world.

Unless something is done, there is a 75% chance that the average global temperature will rise by 2-3 degrees over the next 50 years. As you are already aware, the likely consequences will include sea-level rise, extreme weather, falling crop yields and a massive displacement of populations.  

Practical examples of the physical impacts are easy to find. Increasingly violent cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes will continue to affect millions more than before  - including countries in South East Asia. The recent incidents of extreme weather in the region are cases in point.

Outside SEA region - in just 25 years, the Himalayan glaciers, which are the ultimate sources of water for 1.5 billion people could be gone. These are real costs to individual livelihoods, communities and countries.  

The Red Cross estimates that in 2100, for the first time, the number of environmental refugees was greater than the number of people fleeing war and conflict. Just think about what that means.  

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The international community will meet in Copenhagen in December to agree a new treaty to replace the Kyoto protocol. The UK is working hard to ensure success. We want an agreement that is ambitious, by limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius; an agreement that is effective, by driving investment in clean energy, sustainable forestry and adaptation; and an agreement that is fair, by providing sufficient finance, technology and capacity building for developing countries to take action on both mitigation and adaptation.

But while the Copenhagen talks are crucial, those negotiations – and their outcome – need to be supported by concrete action on the ground. Action to transform societies to a low carbon economy.  

Many Governments realise that is the best path to a prosperous, sustainable future. But there are those who resist. A common argument is that of cost – that it will cost too much to tackle climate change, and damage economic activity. With this in mind, the UK Government asked Lord Stern, former top economic advisor to the World Bank and to the UK government, to produce a Review of the Economics of Climate Change.  

Stern’s 2006 report found that climate change would have a huge impact on the world economy, conservatively 5 % or potentially as much as 20 % of global GDP. But he concluded that doing something about climate change now would amount to less than 1 % of the global GDP.  

The report had a very positive reception. But one comment was that the scope was global – very good to draw overall conclusions, but not as detailed as individual countries or regions wanted for their economic planning.  

This gap has now been filled. In April, the Asian Development Bank published a review of the economics of climate change in Southeast Asia. It followed the methodology used in the Stern Review, and looks at both the regional scale and individual countries.  

The report provides insights on how the region will need to mitigate and adapt to climate change. It provides the economic rationale for doing so quickly. And it includes policy options for the transition to a low carbon economy.  

The ADB found that South East Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change – particularly as most of the population and economic activity is concentrated on low-lying coastlines; and the region heavily reliant on agriculture, natural resources and forestry.

The ADB found that climate change is already happening, and the worst is yet to come. The mean temperature is projected to rise 4.8°C by 2100, and the sea level to rise by 70 cm in the same period.    

This means that the region is likely to suffer greatly.  The report predicts a loss of 6.7% of combined GDP, each year by 2100 – which is more than twice the world average.  

But encouragingly, South East Asia has great potential to reduce its emissions. For example, in the energy sector 40% of emissions could be reduced at negative-cost – that is by reducing energy bills and saving money.  

I will allow the film to convey the other key messages. But I am pleased that the ADB report has had a positive response. So we wanted to make sure, as many people as possible were aware of the findings.

We therefore commissioned production of an original film to communicate the messages. It features a range of key personalities from South East Asia; shows the evidence of the need for action; and outlines the many possibilities that exist to reduce emissions at low cost.  

I hope you enjoy it, and I would be pleased to receive your feedback after the viewing.

Thank you.

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